TIFA Poll: 41% of Kenyans Say Raila’s Absence Complicates Ruto’s 2027 Re-Election Bid

The death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga has triggered a shift in Kenya’s political landscape, with new polling data indicating that President William Ruto now faces a tougher path to securing a second term in 2027.

A TIFA survey released on December 23, 2025, shows that 41 per cent of Kenyans believe Odinga’s absence from the political scene makes President Ruto’s re-election bid more difficult.

The survey paints a picture of a sharply divided electorate as voters assess the political consequences of Raila Odinga’s departure from national politics.

While a plurality of respondents see his absence as a setback for President Ruto, opinions remain mixed. Thirty per cent of Kenyans believe Odinga’s death could ease the president’s path to a second term, while 18 per cent say it makes no difference at all. Another 10 per cent remain undecided.

Overall, the findings suggest that most voters view Raila’s absence as a complicating factor rather than a clear political advantage for the incumbent, challenging the assumption that removing a powerful opposition figure automatically benefits those in power.

Government Performance Takes Centre Stage

The poll also signals a shift in voter priorities, with many Kenyans linking Ruto’s 2027 prospects more closely to his administration’s performance than to changes within the opposition.

This trend points to an increasingly issue-focused electorate that evaluates leadership based on delivery and outcomes, a development likely to influence campaign strategies as the next election approaches.

Kenya’s political party landscape has undergone significant changes since the 2022 General Election, with both dominant parties suffering notable declines in support.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) remains the country’s most popular party at 20 per cent, followed by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 16 per cent. However, both figures represent sharp drops from August 2022, when ODM commanded 32 per cent support and UDA stood at 38 per cent.

Undecided Voters Become the Largest Bloc

As support for the two main parties erodes, undecided voters have surged to become the single largest segment of the electorate. As of November 2025, undecided voters account for 30 per cent, double the 15 per cent recorded in August 2022.

This dramatic rise highlights a volatile political environment in which no party enjoys a stable or decisive base, leaving voter loyalty highly fluid ahead of 2027.

Beyond ODM and UDA, other political parties continue to trail significantly. Jubilee Party stands at 11 per cent, while smaller parties struggle to gain traction.

Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) records 6 per cent support, Wiper stands at 4 per cent, Ford-Kenya at 1 per cent, and DAP-Kenya also at 1 per cent. Parties grouped under the “Other” category account for 4 per cent.

The fragmentation highlights the absence of a unifying opposition force capable of filling the vacuum left by Raila Odinga.

Kenyans Expect ODM to Return to Opposition

The survey suggests that many voters anticipate a major political realignment ahead of the next election. Half of respondents believe ODM will exit the Broad-Based Government and return to the opposition before the 2027 presidential race.

Only 30 per cent expect the party to remain in government, while 20 per cent remain unsure about ODM’s future direction.

Voters remain deeply divided over who should lead ODM in the post-Raila era, revealing internal tensions over the party’s future.

The largest group of respondents, 34 per cent, want ODM to select and support one of its current leaders as its presidential candidate in 2027. Another 24 per cent prefer that the party refrains from endorsing any candidate, leaving the decision to individual voters.

Meanwhile, 20 per cent believe ODM should help identify and support a candidate from the broader Azimio Opposition coalition.

Openness to Political Realignment Emerges

In a striking indication of shifting political attitudes, 19 per cent of respondents say they would support President William Ruto as an ODM candidate if he were to join the party and if UDA and Kenya Kwanza field no candidate of their own.

The finding highlights an unexpected openness to political realignment that cuts across traditional party loyalties. Only 3 per cent of respondents offered no opinion.

Taken together, the TIFA survey reveals an increasingly undecided electorate, declining confidence in major parties, and deep divisions over opposition leadership.

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